What does ROI mean? What do you mean by projected ROI?
ROI stands for “Return on Investment" and is most commonly associated with stock portfolios and other investment vehicles. As it relates to betting, ROI can be thought of as the amount made or lost on a wager or series of wagers. This value can be positive or negative depending on the outcome of the wagers. ROI in betting can be displayed as a dollar value, percentage or the commonly used "unit."
There are several ROI's we calculate on the website, some for historical bets and others for games yet to be played. Below is a brief description of the two:
This is the ROI for our historical results, which is updated constantly as games are played and wagers are graded. It is calculated thusly:
(Profit/Total Dollars Risked)*100
Projected ROI, however, is more complicated. For our purposes, the projected ROI is the percentage you could expect your initial wager(s) to grow by if you bet on games with similar projected ROI's over time. The larger the sample (the number of wagers placed), the closer we would expect the Projected ROI and the actual ROI to be for that series of bets.
How can you pick the underdog to win but the favorite to cover? Shouldn't they match up?
Each individual recommendation is arrived at independent of the others, using separate models. This means that the selection for the Spread pick has no bearing on the Moneyline pick, or the Over/Under pick on the Spread pick and so forth.
For instance, we might recommend you bet the Underdog to Win but the Favorite to cover the Spread; obviously only one of these outcomes is possible, so a recommendation of both doesn't make sense. In these instances, we suggest looking to the Star-Rating for the best bet to make.
What time are your picks produced? Where do you get your lines from?
All of the lines seen on the site and used by our models come from 5Dimes, usually by 6:00AM PST.
At that point, the models begin to run, producing our picks for the day, which are usually up by 7:00AM PST, though the posting time can change depending on the number of games being played that day.
How should I use these picks?
Our strategy is based on the idea of value-based betting, which requires betting on every game & every bet type equally to ensure that risk is spread across multiple picks and that value is maximized across an entire season instead of aiming for one or two “big wins.” We don't make guaranteed picks, only the statistically savvy picks designed to maximize your ROI over the course of an entire year.
How do you deal with lineups/injuries/benchings etc?
Each game page features the lineup of players factored into the predictions and picks for that day. If injuries announced mid-day, we re-run our models to produce a new set of predictions to reflect that change, and the same goes for all announced lineup changes. You can see the last time our predictions were updated in the top right corner of each game page.
What are these separate models with the goofy names like, ”Barkely” and “Olajuwon?”
We utilize a number of models or “teams” to arrive at our separate picks. Each model makes use of a variety of different data-science methodologies and we denote that using names inspired by some of the NBA's greatest players; hence the “Olajuwon” and the “Barkely” labels.