Each pick is produced separately by our algorithms.
That means that the pick for one bet type has no bearing on the prediction for any other bet type. For example, just because our models highlight a bet on the underdog as a 3-star pick does not mean that a spread pick on that same team will receive a 3-star or higher rating.
Should the spread and money-line picks not match up, look to the star rankings for the best bet to be made. For example, if we recommend a money line bet on the underdog but a spread bet on the favorite (two bets that are incongruous with one another), we recommend betting on the pick with the higher star rating.
The following is a breakdown of each variable displayed above:
At Swish, we believe that deliberate, temperate & diligent betting leads to sustainable profit in the long term. Sports betting is not a 'get-rich-quick' scheme, and if treated as such, quickly becomes a 'lose-lots-of-money-quick' scheme.
We understand that for many, sports betting is a way to increase excitement for a given sporting event, and as such, long-term profit possibility is secondary to the adrenaline rush provided by a last minute pick-6 that helps the team you bet on cover the spread. However, if treated as an investment vehicle, long-term profit is achievable with a smart, systematic betting & bankroll management process in place.
As with any investment, the first step is determining how much you're willing to set aside to invest over the course of a given year so you're not gambling with money you cannot afford to lose. As with any investment, there is risk involved with sports betting, but by setting & sticking to your bankroll, that risk is limited.
For the sake of ease, all calculations & figures below will be based on a bankroll of $1000.
Large or small, managing your bankroll properly is the key to a successful long-term betting strategy, and the first step in doing so is determining just how much of your bankroll you're willing to risk on any given day/week. Our system is designed, tested rigorously & constantly improved to provide an expected ROI of between 5-10% year over year, so regardless of your risk level, profit is to be expected, but your risk profile determines just how much money you have to bet week to week.
We at Swish recommend 5% as a sensible figure to risk, but more high risk individuals might consider 10%, while low-risk individuals might consider 2%. Regardless, it is once again important to identify the percentage you're comfortable risking weekly and stick to it; don't chase wins or losses by increasing your risk.
Using our $1000 bankroll, we'd recommend risking 5%, or $50 each week.
Your unit is the base bet you place on any given wager. In our example, we've established $1 as our unit. 5 units would equal $5, and so forth. To maximize your ROI, we recommend betting on all recommended picks in unit amounts equal to the star ratings; this means that a 5-star pick would receive 5 units while a 1-star pick would only receive 1 unit.
Our testing has revealed this to be the most profitable strategy since it mitigates the risk of lower-rated picks while allowing for greater diversification and more opportunities for successful wagers.
By utilizing our picks and the strategy outlined above, you'll not only be able to spread your risk out over a huge number of picks throughout the course of a season, but also take advantage of the fact that your bankroll will compound daily, meaning that even if you wager the same percentage of your bankroll each day (say the 5% from our example), your bankroll would continue to grow, allowing you to profit more each day without ever increasing the percent you're risking day after day.
It is once again important to note that this is a long-term betting strategy. 95% of sports bettors lose money, and most do so because they overexpose themselves with a couple big bets. We are not in the business of providing thrilling, one-time predictions. Our system is built to deliver profits over the course of a year or season. This requires diligence, patience, restraint and trust. We believe in the power of data and probabilities, not emotion and human bias. If you can successfully subscribe to our betting framework, you'll position yourself to benefit from a return on investment within the 5-10% over the course of a season, as we never release a tool that doesn't meet that minimum benchmark of return. Our historical performance can be found here.